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In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. I think we needed somebody like him.. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Port Clinton, Ohio. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Its just not that great, Paul said. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. I hope.. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Peoples common sense level is cooked. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. Youre not getting anybody perfect. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. It will cycle through. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Its gone, Jacobs said. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. I believe in a time cycle. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. To accept cookies, click continue. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. I think all politicians are crooks. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. And its never going to come back.. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. You have to take the lesser of two evils. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. We believe that there are two main reasons. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. Blaine County. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Theres too much mishandling, she said. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. She shook her head at the high price of gas. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Right now, its horrible. This is a high farming community.. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. He pissed off a lot of people. I trust the system implicitly, he said. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. I kind of keep in my bubble. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Nothing is free, Hawker said. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. I think its very political right now, honestly. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County.
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